← Results/Public health · 2024
Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH)
Targeted pandemic measures: ~22% fewer infections at a similar cost.
A menu of 15 policy options, each showing its trade-off between health and economic cost.
~22%
fewer infections at a similar economic cost
15
policy options to choose from
814,000
simulated residents of canton Vaud
60 days
simulated per option
The problem
Most pandemic models predict how a virus spreads. Few help decide which restrictions to choose. Decision-makers needed a menu of defensible options, each with its health and economic cost.
What we built
An optimizer wrapped around a simulation of 814,000 residents of canton Vaud going to work, school, shops and leisure. It searches restrictions by age group and activity, and returns the best trade-offs between infections and economic cost.
The result
15 policy options, each with its own 60-day simulated outbreak. Which age group you restrict matters: targeting 30–39-year-olds at work led to about 22% fewer infections than an option focused on older groups, at a similar economic cost (72M vs 69M CHF).
A problem like this?